The U.S. Travel Association’s Spring 2026 forecast, built on Tourism Economics’ modeling, pegs total US travel spending at $1.37 trillion this year and $1.42 trillion in 2027 on an inflation-adjusted basis. Domestic travel accounts for roughly 87 percent of the total at $1.20 trillion, which lines back up with 2019 spending levels after adjusting for inflation.

The headline numbers cover several different story lines.

Domestic leisure spending is projected to grow 0.9 percent to $909 billion in 2026, with the forecast flagging elevated travel-good inflation and continued consumer caution as the main drags.
Business travel is forecast to grow 0.7 percent in real terms to $319 billion after a stronger 1.1 percent rise in 2025.
Domestic group travel, which includes association, meetings, and conventions, is expected to grow faster than business travel overall at 1.4 percent to $118 billion.
International inbound is the segment with the biggest reset. After a 2.4 percent decline in 2025, U.S. Travel is now modeling 1.6 percent inbound growth to $178 billion, with the FIFA World Cup expected to anchor most of the swing back toward positive territory.

Why the Forecast Is Landing the Way It Is

The mix tells the story. Domestic travel is roughly flat in real terms, business travel is creeping forward, and the headline growth narrative is leaning on a once-in-a-generation international event. The latest travel data report from U.S. Travel continues to show international arrivals still running well below pre-tariff and pre-policy-shift expectations earlier in the year, which is part of why the inbound rebound is being framed as a swing rather than a structural recovery.

That framing is shaping budget conversations at Destinations International member DMOs heading into FY27 planning, particularly in cities sitting outside the World Cup hosts. The question for those markets is what spending pattern looks like in 2027 once the tournament tailwind fades and the underlying mix has to carry the growth on its own.

The next monthly travel data release will be closely read research.