a view of the airport through a window — Photo by Ivan Lau on Unsplash

The U.S. Travel Association’s most recent forecast projects international visitor arrivals to the United States to reach roughly 85 million in 2026 — a figure that would surpass pre-pandemic 2019 levels and mark the first full post-pandemic recovery year for inbound travel. Total U.S. travel spending is forecast to climb toward $1.49 trillion by 2029.

The growth is driven partly by major event anchors on the 2026 calendar, including the FIFA World Cup hosted across U.S. cities and the America 250 semi-quincentennial celebrations. Recent monthly travel data from U.S. Travel shows the underlying indicators tracking in that direction: air passenger throughput up 2.7% and hotel RevPAR turning positive at a 4.3% national average.

The National Travel and Tourism Office has published a similar outlook, though its forecast methodology differs in how it treats returning visitor segments and currency effects. DMOs comparing the two numbers should read the methodology notes carefully before building the figures into board decks.

What this means for DMOs

Three practical takeaways for destination marketing leaders:

Event-year planning is urgent. DMOs in World Cup host markets and cities with America 250 programming need 2026 and 2027 campaign plans locked now — the window for media buys, creator partnerships, and international trade outreach is closing.
Capacity planning is the other half of the job. Record inbound arrivals also mean pressure on visitor infrastructure, local sentiment, and front-line service. Destination stewardship programs belong alongside marketing plans, not downstream of them.
International source-market strategy needs a refresh. The composition of inbound travel is not returning to its 2019 mix. DMOs still marketing to pre-pandemic source priorities are likely spending against outdated assumptions.

The full forecast is available through U.S. Travel’s member portal, and non-member DMOs can access the public summary and monthly snapshots directly from the association’s research page.