Canadian-resident return trips from the United States fell 14.5 percent year-over-year in February 2026, extending a downward trend that has now lasted thirteen consecutive months. The January figure was even steeper — a 22 percent drop — with both auto and air travel declining sharply across the border.

The numbers break down further into a 12.9 percent decline in automobile crossings and a 17.6 percent decline in air travel when comparing February 2026 to the same month last year. The economic modeling around these drops is significant: estimates suggest the sustained pullback could translate to $4.2 billion in losses across U.S. tourism, retail, and hospitality — with potential job impacts in the tens of thousands, particularly concentrated in hotel and accommodation sectors near major border corridors.

The contributing factors are layered. Rising travel costs, elevated friction at border crossings, and shifting political sentiment have all been cited. At the same time, domestic tourism within Canada has surged, with Canadian travelers redirecting spending to local destinations rather than U.S. ones. There is also meaningful growth in Canadians choosing overseas destinations over U.S. travel — a longer-term behavioral shift that some analysts are watching closely.

What This Means for DMOs

For destination marketing organizations with any exposure to the Canadian market — which includes virtually every border-state DMO and most major urban CVBs — this is not a wait-and-see situation. The pattern is consistent and the causes are structural, not seasonal.

First-party data becomes critical here. DMOs that have been building visitor intelligence systems with segmented Canadian visitor data have the advantage of knowing exactly how much of their hotel tax revenue, attraction visitation, and lodging occupancy historically traces back to Canadian travelers. Those without that baseline are flying blind.

The practical response for most DMOs involves two things: a messaging recalibration toward the segments still traveling (the data shows U.S. residents heading north is actually up 6.1 percent year-over-year in February, suggesting opportunity for bidirectional marketing partnerships), and a serious look at whether international diversification makes sense — targeting markets that are actively growing rather than doubling down on a contracting one.

DMOs in high-impact border regions should be briefing their boards now, with data-backed projections, not waiting for Q3 numbers to confirm what the trend lines already show.