Arrivalist shares an unvarnished opinion piece that upends the “record-breaking Thanksgiving 2025” forecasts and reports. Did this even happen at all? Arrivalist says “it didn’t happen.”

The “Record-Breaking” 2025 Thanksgiving Travel Hype Missed the Mark.

For weeks, the headlines were unavoidable. From AAA’s annual forecast predicting 80M travelers to the major networks, the prediction was unanimous: 2025 would be the busiest Thanksgiving travel season on record.

Now that the dust has settled and the actual transaction data is in, a different reality has emerged.

The “record-breaking” surge? It didn’t happen. In fact, our latest Arrivalist TripInsights and SpendInsights data reveal that visitor volume (traveling 50+ miles) was actually down 6.1% YoY.

Even more telling is the financial story. As travelers tightened their belts, spending dropped 9.5%, with declines visible every single day of the holiday week. Even more strikingly, visitor spending in some specific categories plummeted much further: visits by travelers to department stores on Black Friday were down over 30% in Florida, for example.

So, where did the predictions go wrong, and what does this shift mean for Destination Marketing Organizations as we head into 2026? Let’s break down the real numbers.

Use this link for the article with research, charts, and insights.

Also, via LinkedIn, Arrivalist is offering, “Exclusive for DMOs: Get Your Free Data Curious how your specific destination held up against the national trend?
1) Follow us (Arrivalist) on LinkedIn
2) Comment below:
ARRIVALIST THANKSGIVING 2025 – [Your City or County or State]
(Example: ARRIVALIST THANKSGIVING 2025 – Miami, FL)
We (Arrivalist) will DM you a free November 2025 daily chart for your destination.”